Weekend Box Office Forecast – July 3–5, 2026
This Independence Day weekend sees two new wide releases entering the marketplace, although only one is expected to make a significant impact.
No. 1 – Minions and Monsters
The weekend's biggest new release, Minions and Monsters, is on course to debut at No. 1, although its opening is proving to be more subdued than many had anticipated.
Current projections suggest a 5-day opening of approximately $64 million, with the traditional Friday–Sunday weekend expected to land around $40 million.
The film opened on 4,243 screens on Wednesday, July 1, giving it a five-day holiday launch. While these numbers are respectable, they fall short of early expectations. The strong performance of Toy Story 5 appears to have created more competition than expected—something many industry analysts had predicted before release.
No. 2 – Toy Story 5
Holding second place is expected to be Toy Story 5, with an estimated 55% weekend decline.
Based on the latest available figures, the film has now reached an impressive $626.5 million worldwide. Industry estimates place its break-even point between $650 million and $700 million, meaning profitability is now within touching distance.
The film is expected to generate $30–35 million over the Friday–Sunday period despite losing 450 screens, bringing its current theatre count down to 3,975 locations.
No. 3 – Young Washington
The second new release this weekend is Young Washington, opening on 2,700 screens.
As a historical drama with a distinctly American theme, its strongest appeal is expected to be within the domestic market. Current forecasts suggest a $15–$18 million opening weekend.
No. 4 – Supergirl
Supergirl is projected to finish fourth this weekend while continuing to benefit from some Large Screen Format (LSF) and IMAX showings, which should provide a welcome boost to its box office performance.
The film is currently playing in 3,602 theatres.
Looking Ahead – July 10
Next weekend brings two notable new releases:
Evil Dead Burn is currently tracking for a $30–35 million Friday–Sunday debut.
Disney's Moana also arrives in cinemas, although some analysts believe it could face a challenging start. As a sequel to the animated original released a decade ago, there are questions about the level of audience demand. Early forecasts suggest an opening in the region of $40 million, similar to the debut of Supergirl.
Industry News
During the week, reports surfaced alleging that the script and plot details for Marvel Studios' Avengers: Doomsday, due for release this December, had leaked online.
The film is also reported to carry a combined production and marketing budget approaching $1 billion. If accurate, industry estimates suggest it would need to generate around $2 billion worldwide to reach its break-even point.
The challenge may be even greater given the limited availability of Large Format Screen (LFS) auditoriums later this year, making its road to profitability one of the most closely watched stories of 2026/27.